Here are some of the learning from the book "The Drunkard's Walk" by Leonard Mlodinow, a Physicist at Caltech. I was unable to find the author on the faculty list at Caltech and upon searching at Caltech's site, the author's name indicated that he was a visiting lecturer in Biology.....Not sure what to conclude from this finding.
Regression towards the mean
In A series of random events, an event that is extraordinary (away from the mean) is most likely to be followed by an ordinary (closer to the mean) event, sue to purely probability. It can be understood by the common experience that if a pilot instructor praises an extra ordinary maneuver by a student-pilot, the next maneuver would be an "ordinary" one. Or if the same instructor screams at a student pilot for an away from mean (and low quality) maneuver, then the next maneuver of the student would be a better one (compared to the low quality extra ordinary event) as it would be closer to the mean (which is above the low quality extraordinarily scarce event).
Successful people in every field are almost universally members of a certain set of folks who do not give up. It does not mean that the individual ability does not help, it is one of the factors that increase the chances of success.
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